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          2016 New Energy Automotive Policy Development Analysis Report

          Release time:2016-01-28 11:28:05

          Main data from: autohome
          Data shows in Nov 2015, the new energy automotive manufacturing volume in China has reached 72,300. That figure is 7 times compares with the same time of last year’s. During the period of Jan to Nov of 2015, the totally production volume of new energy automotive is 279,200, which is 5 times compares with the figure of 2014. According to the data of national passenger car market information union, from Jan to Nov of 2015, the month sales volume of new energy automotive has reached 115,600 and that is much higher than the volume of 2014 (which is 37,000). The sales increase rate has reached 300% especially from Aug to Nov and the month sales average increase has reached 4,000.
          No one doubts that energy car development is on the agenda of government policy. So on the beginning of Chinese 13th 5 year plan, how is Chinese policy influence the new energy automotive development? This paper will give readers an analysis about the main trend of new energy automotive policy development on both ends of supply and demand. We hope this article will help readers to get a more realistic view about the picture of new energy industry during the current hot situation.
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          Supply end: improve battery supplying and battery charging standard; standardizing supply chain development and competition.
          Early as March of 2015, Chinese MIIT (Ministry of Industry and Information Technology) has public “Automotive power storage battery industry specification”. This statement clearly specified the industry “volume” standard. It requires that the annual manufacture capacity of a single li-ion power storage battery venture should be at least 200,000,000Wh; the annual manufacture capacity of a hydride power storage battery venture should be at least 10,000,000Wh; the annual manufacture capacity of one supercapacitor venture should be at least 5MWh while the annual capacity of a systematic power manufacturing venture should be at least 10,000fits or 200,000,000Wh. If it is a multi-type manufacturing venture, the annual capacity should be met above requirement separately. Besides those requirements, ventures also must reach battery safety, model uniformity and cycle life standards either based on industrial or national level. Those standards are viewed as a response to “National Key R&D Project-New Energy Automotive Implementation Plan (exposure draft)” published by MIIT on Feb, 2015. 
          Half a year later, on 12nd of Oct, 2015, MIIT published the 1st catalogue of ventures which conform to “Automotive power storage battery industry specification” and there are 10 ventures listed in this catalogue. The range of this catalogue covered 36 models of power batteries, including 19 lithium iron phosphate batteries, 11 ternary batteries, 4 lithium titanate batteries and 2 ni-mh-li batteries. This was seen as a detailed interpretation after the public of “Automotive power storage battery industry specification” and it clearly defined the supplier range for upstream battery makers. 
          Based on the judgment of policy-publishing cycle, we estimate there will be more detailed standards for battery implementation and recycling. In 2016, there will be a comprehensive specification for whole up-stream of new energy automotive industry. Some ventures like BYD, BAK are missed in the 1st catalogue, we can’t rule out such possibility that some new ventures will enter in the catalogue in 2016. It would preliminary form the up-stream situation of battery industry.
          On the other hand, in the field of charging support facility, on Oct 9th 2015, Chinese General Office of the State Council published “Instruction about Raising the Constructing Speed to Electric vehicle Charging Basement facility”. It clearly stated that in the year of 2020, we should finish the charging basement facility construction in proper-advanced, vehicle-situation-based, intelligent and efficient level, which could meet the charging requirement for 5 million electric vehicles. The parking position of new building must be 100% equipped with charging facility or at least available for setting up position to install charging facilities. Massive public buildings with parking station and public parking station must be equipped with charging facility or at least available for setting up position to install charging facilities (the share of such position should be more than 10%). And there must be at least one public charging station for every 2000 electric vehicles in the city. In 2016, this policy is expected to be combined with de-stocking policy of real estate industry to solve the future problems of new energy vehicles development on the base of industry rear-end.
          On Oct 15th 2015, NDRC (National Development and Reform Commission), NEA (National Energy Administration), MIIT and MHURC (Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Construction) joint hand and published “Electric Vehicle Charging Basement Facility Development Instruction” internally. This move was treated as a further implementation of General Office’s opinions about charging basement facility construction. We estimate in 2016, the national charging standard will be more clear-identified in terms of charging voltage and compatibility. It will benefit to perform rapid resources integration between new energy vehicle venture and charging services and avoid repeated investment. In the future, as the construction of transparent charging service fee and reasonable allocation of charging supplier distribution, we estimate some facilities like BYD stereo parking-charging integration station, massive charging stations like BAIC&TELD co-built stereo parking-charging parking house will be popularized.
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          Demand end: plug hybrid power and long-time endurance products are the mainly trend; business lease will be in the ascendant
          As the public of BYD-Tang, the sales of plug hybrid power SUV has raised rapidly in recent several months. However in general, due to the large existence of short time endurance pure electric vehicle like brand Zotye and brand Panda, in whole year of 2015, the main sales share of new energy automotive was still taken by pure electronic cars. In many urban-rural areas, the demand of pure electronic cars with short time endurance, relatively lower technical requirement, easy to charge model is still strong. In some car purchase limited cities, pure electronic car has no license limit and can meet short distance travel requirement. To many people it is a good way to travel by electronic car instead of motorcycle. 
          Although developing pure electronic car is national strategy, its endurance capability is always a focus concerned by consumers. The endurance capacity now has become an important guidance to national policy. In May 2015, NDRC, ministry of finance, MOST (ministry of science and technology) and MIIT joint hands published “A Financial Support Statement to Develop Application of New Energy Vehicle during 2016-2020”. In this statement, it clearly identified the subsidy standard to new energy cars in 2016 and subsidy will be reduced properly except for fuel cell car during 2017 to 2020. In details: in 2017 to 2018, the subsidy will be reduced by 20% on the base of 2016’s. In 2019 to 2020, the subsidy will be reduced by 40% on the base of 2016’s. Compare with the subsidy between 2015 and 2016, there is an obvious point, i.e. the subsidy for long time endurance pure electronic vehicle will be raised. For car of endurance more than 250KM, the subsidy of 2016 will be 1000 yuan more than that of 2015. This subsidy shows government policy support to long time endurance electronic cars, which relevant venture would input a lot of technical investment in earlier stage (the longer endurance time it has, the higher requirement to the balance between cell weight and whole vehicle kinetic energy there is). Longer time endurance electronic will enjoy more subsidy also shows our government encouragement for hi-tech development.
          The policy encourages the development of electronic car. However it should not only focus on the growth of volume, but also it should pay more attention to technology and quality improvement. Only through such way we can realize our international advantage in new energy vehicle field meanwhile make up our disadvantage in traditional vehicle field.
          Of course the description above is only national subsidy. There are still other kinds of subsidies in different cities. Usually it keeps on the rate of 1:1. For example, in Beijing, Tianjing and Guangzhou, the municipal subsidy is the same as national’s. However the time of subsidy ends up on Dec 31st of 2015. We don’t know if it would be cancelled or not in 2016. But if we look at the picture of national strategic policy, the municipal subsidy would like to be continued and it could even higher than before. There is an instance in Shenzhen city. There is 60,000yuan of subsidy to electronic car of endurance more than 250KM, which is 6,000yuan higher than national subsidy. Besides that, ventures in Shenzhen could also enjoy extra 20,000yuan of subsidy in terms of application.
          There was an environmental survey published by ministry of environmental protection before. It stated if we observed a number of days in 14 cities (Shenyang, Harbin, Jinan, Hengshui, Xingtai, Cangzhou, Changchun, Tangshan, Langfang, Zhengzhou, Dalian, Baoding, Beijing and Tianjing), it was just 50% of those days could reach the air quality requirement. This is one factor that municipal government maintains and raises the subsidies to new energy vehicles. We took Beijing for instance. In 2016 the city will license 60,000 new energy cars and in recently it is said that the number would be raised to 90,000. The move is definitely has something to do with the city’s environmental protection pressure. Besides, due to the national electricity beneficial policy and the cost advantage compared with oil-driven cars, if we use the cheapest electricity in the night, the whole cost of electric cars will be easier to be controlled. This makes car-lease business platforms favor electric cars.
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          There will be business if there are demands. If 2015 is the year of begging for new energy vehicles, then 2016 will be the year of standardization. As the mature and complete of national policy, standards for cell, charging and business qualification will be drafted. Once those standards were confirmed, they will significantly guide the regulated development of whole industry. Meanwhile the clear definition of local subsidy will also encourage the popularization of new energy vehicles, which lead to the remarkable environment friendly car consuming habit change for whole Chinese citizens. 

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